Wang Bohua: Development Status and Trend of Photovoltaic Industry
"Progress in stability, China's photovoltaic industry will rise to the challenge." Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, introduced the development status of China's photovoltaic industry and looked forward to the future development trend of the industry.
As far as the development status is concerned, the production of polysilicon, silicon chips, batteries and modules in the first half of 2022 will increase by more than 45% year on year; Application end; In the first eight months, 44.. 47GW of photovoltaic equipment was newly installed, with a year-on-year growth of 106%; In terms of import and export, the total export of photovoltaic products from January to August reached 35.7 billion US dollars, and the export of photovoltaic modules exceeded 100GW, which has exceeded the whole year of 2021.
In terms of development trends, Wang Bohua introduced two major development trends. First, on the application side, the global photovoltaic power generation has huge development space. According to IRENA data, under the 1.5 ℃ scenario, the photovoltaic power generation will account for 29% of the global total power generation by 2050. In addition, IEA predicts that the photovoltaic power generation will account for more than 30% of the global total power generation by 2050 when the net zero emission is put aside. At the same time, China's photovoltaic power generation market has a strong reserve scale. Three batches of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases focusing on desert, Gobi and desert regions are progressing in an orderly manner. The photovoltaic installation plan of each province during the "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" period is huge. The photovoltaic installation plan of 26 provinces that only disclose information exceeds 407GW, and 355.5GW will be added in the next four years.
The second is the manufacturing side, focusing on the international development trend of supply chain diversification. The United States, the European Union, India and other overseas countries vigorously develop their own photovoltaic industry chain, and international competition will become increasingly fierce; Domestic enterprises have a strong desire for capacity expansion. According to preliminary statistics, from the beginning of 2021 to June 2022, there are more than 300 photovoltaic expansion projects in China.
In Wang Bohua's view, the growth process of the photovoltaic industry is full of opportunities and challenges, such as the vertical integration model, which is particularly prominent in the current development process. The opportunities are self production and self use, optimizing the profit space of the overall industrial chain, making theoretical costs more advantageous, mitigating the impact of the supply chain, and making enterprise production more stable. However, the challenges lie in the need for a large amount of capital investment, and higher requirements for quality and technology in each link, And the extension of the industrial chain also brings more possibilities for enterprises to face risks.
In addition, cross-border enterprises and central state-owned enterprises have entered the manufacturing end one after another. While promoting photovoltaic technology and making the industry more active, they also increase the risk of overcapacity and make the industry more competitive.
It is urgent to pay attention to that in the future, geopolitical, big country games, century epidemics, natural disasters and other interventions or impacts on the industrial chain will become more frequent and intense. However, the fiery capital, the enthusiasm of the government and the ambition of enterprises will also promote the continuous development and expansion of the industrial chain.